AI will reshape the medical ecology in the future

Three years after the epidemic, the medical economy has entered a period of adjustment, but the development toughness is still in progress. "It is expected that in 2023, China's pharmaceutical economy will start a new process of high-quality development with a rebound in growth. On the premise of a stable recovery in economic fundamentals, the operating income of China's pharmaceutical manufacturing industry is expected to increase by 8.9% in 2023 (the statistical caliber does not include devices); the sales of the pharmaceutical terminal market is expected to reach 2306.2 billion yuan, an increase of 9.1% over 2022." Recently, at the 34th National Pharmaceutical Economic Information Conference held in Hengqin, Zhuhai, Lin Jianning, secretary of the Party Committee of the Southern Institute of Pharmaceutical Economics under the State Food and Drug Administration, reviewed the operation of China's pharmaceutical economy in the past three years, and released a new forecast for the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry in 2023.

In Lin Jianning's view, the past three years have entered an adjustment period, with raw material prices rising, terminal stalling and capital ebbing. However, under the challenge, the transformation and upgrading of the pharmaceutical economy has not stopped.

From the perspective of enterprise structure, the proportion of operating revenue of Chinese pharmaceutical industry production enterprises above 10 billion has increased from 13.7% in 2016 to 20%, and the proportion of profit has increased from 12.9% to about 18%; Among them, the concentration of the top ten pharmaceutical companies has exceeded 16%, and the leading enterprises have grown steadily in the crisis, and the first matrix that drives the tough growth of pharmaceuticals has been formed.

According to the data disclosed by the "Fortune 500", the scale of the leading pharmaceutical enterprises in China and the United States (taking the first place in various fields as an example) has increased from 1:23 a decade ago to 1:3 today, the scale of the leading pharmaceutical circulation enterprises in China and the United States has increased from 1:8.4 a decade ago to 1:2.4 today, and the scale of the leading pharmaceutical retail chain enterprises in China and the United States has increased from 1:188 a decade ago to 1:80 today, China's mainstream pharmaceutical enterprises have become the vanguard of realizing the dream of becoming a powerful pharmaceutical country.

From the perspective of regional pattern, a cluster pattern has been formed in China with the Yangtze River Delta, Bohai Rim, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Bay Area and other urban clusters as the core, and the collaborative distribution of characteristic industrial parks as the feature. In particular, the Greater Bay Area of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao is constantly improving the pattern of pharmaceutical manufacturing industry, and will build a world-class production base and innovation highland of traditional Chinese medicine, and become the flagship of the international navigation mark of traditional Chinese medicine.

"Compared with 2019 - 2022, although the growth rate in some years has entered a low ebb, the total size of the pharmaceutical economy has steadily increased, and the subsequent growth is resilient; the enterprise structure and regional layout have been upgraded, and the intensive trend has emerged; the terminal business has changed, and the drug demand will not shrink; the innovation investment has increased, and the head force is fully catching up with the international front row. China has become a major pharmaceutical country, and is moving towards high-quality development of 'large and strong, large and excellent' Type. Against this background, the Southern Institute is optimistic about the rebound of the pharmaceutical economy in 2023. " Lin Jianning said.

At the same time as the forecast was released, Lin Jianning also commented on the dynamic new track of China's pharmaceutical economy in 2023:

First, the fourth terminal continues to release. It is expected that the sales of the fourth terminal medicine will exceed 350 billion yuan in 2023, with an increase of about 23%. However, the online sales format has changed faster than offline. For example, the recent OTC live drug sales has attracted the attention of the industry. How to standardize the drug information dissemination in the network era, and the new marketing model has also triggered new thinking.

The second is the rapid development of the integration of medicine and machinery. International pharmaceutical giants have been involved in digital therapy and have carried out digital therapy-related businesses in more than 22 disease segments.

Third, CDMO maintains a high market prosperity, and the professional division of domestic drug innovation will be more detailed.

The fourth is the revolution in drug research and development efficiency triggered by artificial intelligence (AI). The recent boom of ChatGPT makes the application scenario of AI+medicine further attract capital attention. The application of AI technology in China is mainly in the drug research and development stage. Referring to the previous international popular statistical caliber, the accuracy of AI in predicting the success of clinical trials is about 87%, reducing the time of drug discovery by 40%, and reducing the time of drug clinical trials by at least 50%. In Lin Jianning's view, AI will change the world and reshape the medical ecology in the future.

Lin Jianning concluded: "The recovery signal appears, and the policy encourages investment. The potential of the new track is released, the attraction of the pharmaceutical industry for capital return is optimistic for a long time, and the enthusiasm of pharmaceutical innovation investment is expected to rise, and investment will become a major driving force to drive the new growth of the pharmaceutical economy. The acceleration of the listing of new drugs, the centralized purchase and price reduction have promoted the public's access to drugs, the strengthening of comprehensive health care awareness after the epidemic, the expansion of the international influence of traditional Chinese medicine, and the increase of pharmaceutical consumption demand Class A is also good for boosting recovery. "

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